New offensive from Belarus and threats to Kyiv: what is really behind Lukashenko's statements

Recent statements about a possible offensive from the territory of Belarus and new threats from Russia regarding Kyiv have once again caused a wave of anxiety among Ukrainians. However, there are currently no real signs of preparations for a large-scale operation, and the reports themselves resemble elements of psychological pressure. This assessment was voiced by People’s Deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak.

In recent days, two topics have been actively discussed in the information space. The first concerns the possible involvement of Belarus in more active combat operations against Ukraine. The second is related to the statement by the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov, who effectively threatened new strikes on Ukrainian facilities and urged foreign states to ensure the security of their diplomatic missions.

Why the scenario of a new offensive from Belarus looks unlikely

According to Zheleznyak, the situation is fundamentally different from the beginning of 2022. Over more than four years of war, Ukraine has significantly strengthened the defense of its northern border, created new fortifications, and deployed modern surveillance systems.

Moreover, the development of drone technology has changed the very nature of warfare. Large columns of equipment are now much more difficult to hide from reconnaissance, and their movement quickly becomes a target for drones and artillery.

The deputy also pointed out that Belarus has effectively been involved in supporting Russia since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, providing its territory for military infrastructure. However, this does not mean that a new large-scale offensive is automatically starting.

Why Russia is once again frightening diplomats and residents of Kyiv

Zheleznyak also noted Lavrov's statements about possible strikes on Kyiv as particularly significant. In his opinion, the main goal of such messages is to sow panic among Ukrainians and create additional pressure on Ukraine's Western partners.

At the same time, there are currently no facts indicating a mass withdrawal of foreign embassies or international organizations from Kyiv. On the contrary, many structures continue to operate in the capital, and international missions regularly visit Ukraine.

According to the deputy, instead of reacting to information provocations, Ukraine should focus on strengthening its defense, developing drone technologies, supplying military needs, and reinforcing its defense infrastructure.

For Ukrainians, this situation means that loud statements from Moscow and Minsk should be assessed through the lens of real military capabilities, rather than emotional headlines. Despite constant information attacks, the main factors of security remain the readiness of the Ukrainian army, support from partners, and the country's ability to adapt to the new challenges of war.

Earlier, Yaroslav Zheleznyak stated that Western media did not call for stopping support for Ukraine due to corruption scandals surrounding the authorities.