Russia Lacks the Resources for a Baltic War Until 2028, Says Ukrainian Security Official

Andriy Kovalenko on Russia’s Military Capabilities

According to Главком: Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, stated that Russia does not have enough resources to wage a full-scale war against the Baltic states. He noted that by 2028, the Russian Federation will still lack the capacity to carry out comprehensive military operations in that region. Kovalenko emphasized that Russia’s hybrid provocations-such as military aircraft incursions into Baltic airspace-are part of the Kremlin’s information warfare campaign.

Hybrid Provocations and International Drills

These hybrid tactics also include spreading claims that the West allegedly plans to seize Kaliningrad. Russian propaganda actively manipulates information, pushing narratives about the possibility of Ukraine using Baltic and Polish airspace to strike Russian ports near St. Petersburg. Furthermore, Russia’s Ministry of Defense has published a list of European addresses linked to drone production facilities that collaborate with Ukraine, further underscoring Moscow’s aggressive rhetoric.

Meanwhile, France and Poland are planning joint military exercises on NATO’s eastern flank, set to take place soon in the Baltic Sea region and northern Poland. The drills will involve French Rafale fighters equipped with ASMP missiles carrying nuclear warheads, training for the simulated use of such weapons. These actions highlight the readiness of Western allies to respond to Russian threats and uphold regional security.

Kovalenko’s statements indicate that despite Russia’s aggressive actions, its ability to engage in an open military conflict in the Baltic region remains limited.

This underscores the importance of international cooperation and NATO military exercises as a response to potential threats. The joint efforts by France and Poland demonstrate their awareness of security issues and commitment to collective defense, which strengthens stability in the region.

While Andriy Kovalenko highlights Russia's limited military capabilities in the Baltic region until 2028, it's essential to consider the broader security landscape. A recent defense study warns of a potential 90-day collapse of Lithuania in 2027, emphasizing the necessity for continued vigilance and strategic planning among NATO allies to counter any emerging threats.