Russia's Offensive Capacity in Question as Monthly Losses Reach 35,000 Troops

Russia's Military Faces a Manpower Crisis Amid Staggering Casualty Rates

According to ХВИЛЯ: Analysis of Russian army losses in Ukraine points to severe challenges in replenishing military units, which could significantly impact the country's capacity to launch offensives. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russia is losing between 30,000 and 35,000 personnel each month, including those killed and seriously wounded. Since the invasion began in 2022, at least 325,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, based on information from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). This sustained attrition rate presents a fundamental strategic problem for Moscow's war effort.

Desertion levels within the Russian military have reached their highest point in nearly four years of war, signaling growing discontent among soldiers and difficulties in maintaining a stable flow of new recruits. As noted by Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi, Russia aims to recruit approximately 35,000 people per month. However, up to 90% of new recruits in 2025 will be deployed solely to replace casualties and those permanently incapacitated.

Recruitment Methods and Their Consequences

Russia's recruitment strategies now include:

• Enlisting individuals convicted of crimes;
• Pressuring conscripts to sign military contracts;
• Returning wounded soldiers to active duty.

These measures highlight a critical shortage of human resources, which could complicate future military operations. The burden of the war falls disproportionately on different social groups: men from poorer regions like Buryatia and Tuva are dying in Ukraine at a rate 25 times higher than residents of Moscow.

A shift in Russian military tactics has also become apparent, with a move away from mechanized assaults toward greater reliance on infantry and light motorized attacks. This adaptation reflects the new realities on the battlefield. Meanwhile, the economic strain on Russia from contract-signing bonuses amounts to roughly 0.5% of the country's GDP, adding a further burden to the national economy. In the Khanty-Mansiysk region, the total payment for signing a contract can reach 4.1 million rubles, equivalent to approximately $53,000.

Experts warn that if current trends continue, Russia could lose 100,000 to 120,000 frontline troops in just a few months, and filling that gap will be exceedingly difficult. - Michael Kofman

The situation regarding Russian military losses and their ability to replenish units indicates serious challenges for the Kremlin in the context of a protracted conflict. Available data shows that despite plans to recruit new personnel, Russia is struggling to secure sufficient human resources for sustained, active combat operations. This, in turn, is likely to influence the overall war strategy and the stability of the frontline situation.