DeepState Analysis: Russia's Donetsk Offensive Could Take Two More Years

Assessing the Pace of Russia's Advance in Donetsk

According to Главком: At the Kyiv Security Forum, Ruslan Mykula, co-founder of the DeepStateUA project, presented an analysis of Russia's offensive tempo in the Donetsk region. He stated that a full occupation of the region would require at least 742 days, or two years, if the current pace of advance from 2025 continues. Mykula emphasized that war is a non-linear process, and future events could significantly alter these projections, potentially extending the timeline by up to a decade.

Territorial Control in Donetsk Oblast

According to Mykula's data, Russia controlled 32.3% of Donetsk Oblast's territory before its full-scale invasion. In 2022, during the initial stages of the conflict, Russian forces seized an additional 24.4%. From 2023 through 2025 to the present day, the adversary has captured a further 21.8% of the territory. Currently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine retain control over 21.5% of the Donetsk region.

These figures underscore the complex and fluid nature of the battlefield situation. The war in Ukraine has become a protracted conflict of attrition, where territorial control remains a critical strategic objective. Given these projections, strategic decisions on resource allocation and tactics made by Ukraine could substantially influence the future course of the conflict in Donetsk. Monitoring frontline changes and adapting to new challenges will continue to be a priority for Ukrainian military and political leadership.