Russian Shipbuilding until 2035: Why Plans for 2062 Ships are Shattered by Reality

State of Russian Shipbuilding until 2035

According to ХВИЛЯ: Russian shipbuilding until 2035 has an ambitious strategic plan that envisages the construction of 2062 vessels. However, the reality turns out to be significantly less optimistic, as the financial basis for implementing this plan only covers 593 units. This indicates significant discrepancies between the declared goals and the actual capabilities of the industry.

As of today, Russian shipyards have managed to start work on only five of the promised 115 icebreaker vessels, which raises doubts about the country's ability to achieve the planned construction volumes. Under the 'quota under keel' program, only 67 orders have been confirmed, which also indicates problems in the industry.

Challenges and Problems in the Industry

One of the reasons is the price shock: building a civil ship in Russia costs 2.5–3 times more than at Chinese shipyards. This complicates competition and reduces the attractiveness of Russian shipyards for potential customers.

The economic stagnation, caused by expensive capital and a labor shortage, has led to a virtual halt in the development of civil plants. Furthermore, the federal budget of the Russian Federation has been redirected towards military aggression against Ukraine, limiting funding for civil shipbuilding. Thus, the lack of resources and priorities in the military sphere significantly affect the realization of plans in shipbuilding, highlighting the complexity of the situation in this industry.

Current challenges in Russian shipbuilding reflect general problems in the country's economy, where high costs and military priorities significantly constrain the potential for the development of civil sectors. Given the limited number of orders and high production costs, the industry faces serious obstacles that may hinder the realization of even a portion of the planned projects. This situation could have long-term consequences for the competitiveness of Russian shipbuilding in the international market.