Russian budget loses oil and gas revenues: three scenarios for plugging the gap

The Russian leadership is panickingly considering three possible scenarios for plugging the budget 'hole', but each of them will inflict painful blows on ordinary citizens of the RF. The first option involves another 'loan' from the Russian National Welfare Fund, which itself needs support after previous expenditures. The second is an increase in public debt, which will lead to huge additional costs for servicing and repaying loans. The third, 'proven' method is to raise taxes and fees for the population.

The Russian economy is facing a critical crisis due to a catastrophic decline in oil and gas revenues to the state budget. According to the head of the Russian Ministry of Finance, Anton Siluanov, the share of energy revenues will drop to a miserable 20-22% by 2026, whereas it previously reached 50%, as reported by the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service.

Experts from the Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences have officially noted the 'exhaustion of growth factors' in the Russian economy. Particularly alarming is the sharp decline in household consumption in the RF. In the first half of 2025, this indicator fell to 2.7% - the worst result for the entire period of the full-scale war against Ukraine. For comparison, in 2023 it was 7.4%, and last year - 5.4%. These data indicate a systemic crisis of the Russian economy, which cannot withstand the pressure of a prolonged war and international sanctions.

The Russian economy is facing the detrimental impact of falling oil and gas revenues to the state budget, and this has serious consequences for the country. The leadership is searching for ways to resolve the crisis, but all of them promise negative consequences for the population. Economic experts note the exhaustion of development factors in Russia, emphasizing the exacerbation of the situation due to the loss of purchasing power among the population.