Russia’s Weakness Exposed by Its Strike on Kyiv, RAND Europe Analysts Say

Assessing Russia’s Attack on Kyiv

According to ХВИЛЯ: Writing for Foreign Policy, RAND Europe analysts John Kennedy and Jacob Parakilas examine the Russian strike on Kyiv that took place on July 1. They argue that Moscow’s reliance on brute force reveals its vulnerability rather than its strength. According to their assessment, the Ukrainian army has slowed Russia’s advance, is reclaiming territory, and Russian losses continue to climb.

The analysts also predict an uptick in hybrid Russian operations against Europe and stress the need for sustained support for Ukraine.

Frontline Developments

The pace of Russian troop advancement has dropped to its lowest level since the war began. Russian military casualties are mounting, and the loss ratio has shifted in favor of Ukraine’s armed forces. By 2026, the analysts forecast, Ukraine will reclaim more of its land than at any point since 2023. Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov is pursuing a strategy to robotize the army, which is also boosting operational effectiveness.

Kyiv has developed its own long-range strike system, and Ukrainian drones and cruise missiles now hit targets hundreds of kilometers beyond the border on a daily basis. Strikes on Russian oil facilities have prevented Moscow from fully capitalizing on rising oil prices during the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran.

Meanwhile, polling by the independent Levada Center shows a gradual decline in the share of Russians who believe the country is moving in the right direction.

German Gref, the long-time head of Russia’s Sberbank, commented on the situation, saying: 'I don’t think there is a single person in the country whose concerns are about anything other than ending the hostilities as soon as possible.'

The analysts also foresee a rise in hybrid Russian activities, which could include:

• political pressure
• cyberattacks
• sabotage
• strikes on infrastructure
• assassination attempts

However, a direct attack on Europe remains unlikely, as Russian forces are overstretched. Moscow has repeatedly rejected peace plans, signaling its intent to prolong the conflict. The situation stays tense, and developments in Ukraine continue to draw international attention.

The situation in Ukraine remains critically important for European security, as Russian activity alarms neighboring countries. Continued international support for Ukraine could prove decisive in the conflict’s trajectory. Russia’s growing hybrid operations also suggest that the Kremlin is trying to shore up its position amid mounting pressure on its military resources.

As the conflict continues to unfold, the staggering number of military losses Russia has faced is becoming increasingly apparent. Recent reports indicate that nearly half a million Russian soldiers have been lost in the war against Ukraine, highlighting the challenges Moscow faces on the battlefield. This reality further underscores the insights provided by RAND Europe analysts regarding Russia's vulnerabilities and the shifting dynamics of the conflict.