Ukrainian Grain Exports Face 30% Drop Due to Port Attacks, Threatening Economy

Port Attacks Threaten Grain and Steel Exports

According to Главком: Attacks on Ukraine's port infrastructure are expected to cause a major drop in grain exports. Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture Taras Vysotsky stated that monthly shipment volumes could fall by 20-30%. This reduction could lead to a grain surplus of up to 10 million tons. The primary export route for grain and oilseeds is the Black Sea, which handles over 90% of the country's total agricultural exports. Ukraine is a major global supplier of wheat and sunflower oil, making these disruptions significant for international markets.

In 2025, Ukraine's total agricultural exports were valued at $22.6 billion, accounting for roughly 56% of the nation's total exports. Meanwhile, the Cabinet of Ministers set a zero export quota for scrap metal for 2026. This decision could negatively impact Ukrainian steel enterprises, which have already seen their domestic scrap collection plummet by more than 2.5 times-to approximately 2 million tons. Paradoxically, scrap metal exports in 2025 rose to a four-year high.

Impact on the Polish Market

In the 2024-2025 period, Poland collected 6.5-6.8 million tons of scrap metal, with domestic consumption at 4.4-4.5 million tons. The share of Ukrainian scrap in the Polish market structure did not exceed 5%. Taras Vysotsky noted that

"while this volume is not critical for the market, it is economically significant because it represents a product for which producers and the state did not receive foreign currency earnings."

Thus, the situation with port attacks has serious consequences for Ukraine's economy, particularly in the agricultural sector.

The shelling of Ukrainian ports has far-reaching consequences beyond agriculture, affecting the nation's overall economic health. Reduced grain exports could lead to a surplus buildup, impacting prices and financial flows within the agricultural sector. Furthermore, the introduction of a zero export quota for scrap metal may further complicate matters for the steel industry, which is already struggling with a sharp decline in domestic scrap collection. These combined factors create substantial risks for Ukraine's economic stability amid ongoing military conflict.