USDA lowers grain export forecast from Ukraine: how much less corn and wheat will we sell

Reduction of export forecasts for grain crops from Ukraine

According to ХВИЛЯ: The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its December report, which has reduced the export forecast for grain crops from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year, particularly for corn and wheat. The forecast reduction is 2.69 million tons, reflecting new estimates regarding the harvest and consumption of these crops.

The corn harvest forecast has been lowered from 32 million tons to 29 million tons, which has impacted the decrease in the corn export forecast from 24.5 million tons to 23 million tons. Domestic corn consumption in Ukraine has also decreased from 7 million tons to 6 million tons, indicating a change in demand for this crop.

Regarding wheat, the harvest estimate has remained at 23 million tons, but the export forecast has been reduced from 15 million tons to 14.5 million tons. At the same time, domestic wheat consumption has increased from 7.1 million tons to 7.6 million tons. The harvest estimate for other grains has remained at 6.58 million tons, while the export forecast has been reduced to 2.5 million tons, along with an increase in domestic consumption of other grains to 4.15 million tons.

Global trends in the grain market

It is worth noting that the USDA has raised the global wheat export forecast by 1.5 million tons to 218.71 million tons, as well as the corn export forecast by 1.63 million tons to 205.10 million tons. These changes reflect overall trends in the global grain market.

The reduction in export forecasts for grain crops from Ukraine may have a significant impact on the country's economy, as the agricultural sector is an important source of income and employment for many Ukrainians. The decrease in domestic consumption of corn and wheat also indicates possible changes in agricultural policy and consumer trends in Ukraine. At the same time, the increase in global grain export forecasts may create new opportunities for other producing countries, which may affect the competitiveness of Ukrainian farmers in the international arena.