How fuel prices will change after winter 2026

After winter 2026, fuel prices in Ukraine remain relatively stable and do not show sharp fluctuations. Despite the frosts, strikes on energy infrastructure, and a tense international situation, gasoline, diesel, and auto gas maintain a predictable dynamics. This was reported by Znaj.ua.

Fuel market expert Dmytro Lyoshkin notes that the industry is currently in a phase of seasonal balance. According to him, there are currently no internal prerequisites for rising fuel prices, and the most challenging period has already passed without shortages or panic.

Fuel prices after winter: what restrains the increase

The stability at fuel stations is explained by the expert by several factors. Traders formed significant fuel reserves in advance before the autumn increase in excise taxes, which allowed avoiding resource shortages. Also, a moderate demand from consumers influences the market, which does not put pressure on prices.

Among the key factors of stability:

• the availability of fuel reserves among traders;

• absence of shortages in the domestic market;

• low seasonal demand;

• controlled supply logistics.

The only internal risk remains the potential for mass attacks, which are difficult to predict in advance.

Fuel price forecast for spring 2026: external risks

The main threat to price stability is seen by the expert outside of Ukraine. It concerns the potential aggravation of the situation in the Middle East, particularly escalation between Iran and the USA or other large-scale geopolitical events.

If such a scenario materializes, analysts predict an increase in fuel prices by 5-10 hryvnias per liter. At the same time, this option is not considered the baseline, and in the absence of external shocks, Ukrainians should not expect sharp changes in prices at gas stations in the spring.

Earlier, we reported why fuel at gas stations costs differently and why quality decreases in winter.