How fuel prices will rise from the new year: experts' forecast

Starting from January 1, 2026, gasoline may become more expensive by 5–7 hryvnias per liter even without changes in oil prices or the dollar exchange rate. This forecast was voiced by Dmitry Lyoshkin, founder of the Prime group of companies.

Reason for the rise in fuel prices

The expert explained that the fuel market in Ukraine has shrunk by 10–15%, while the profitability of gas stations will increase. This is related to an increase in the trade markup of approximately 20% and rising excise duties. As a result, even without fluctuations in the exchange rate or the cost of oil, the price at the pumps will rise significantly.

Lyoshkin noted that after the start of the full-scale war, fuel consumption fell, as some cars were replaced by electric vehicles. However, the number of gas stations did not decrease, so station owners are looking for ways to maintain profits.

Why drivers overpay for fuel almost twice

According to the expert, now Ukrainians overpay almost twice for every liter, as:

• before the war, the markup was 5–6 UAH per liter
• now it reaches 10–15 UAH
• this allows gas stations not only to survive but also to open new points

"I find it especially funny to watch the promotions and discounts, — Lyoshkin ironically remarks. — On such days, they simply shear you for less than usual, but it looks like you are being given a gift".

The specialist believes that since 2022, real fuel consumption has fallen by 40%, yet gas station networks are not shrinking. On the contrary, they are turning into a kind of "mini-entertainment centers": with cafes, shops, and services that often look fancier than in EU countries.

"A visit to the gas station has turned into an event for us. And this is nonsense — in a poor country, gas stations look cooler than in Europe. But we pay for it", — he emphasizes.

In Lyoshkin's opinion, the more new stations appear and the longer the government does not interfere in pricing, the more Ukrainians will pay for fuel.

Earlier, the expert had already predicted a rise in fuel prices due to increased excise duties. In particular, the price of a liter of autogas will rise by approximately 1 UAH already from February 2026. The National Bank also expects that by the end of 2026, fuel prices will increase by at least 8%.

Previously, we wrote that gasoline in Ukraine could rise to 70 hryvnias. The reason for this is restrictions on the import of Indian petroleum products, many of which are produced from Russian oil.