How Zelenskyy and Allies Responded to 2021 CIA and MI6 Warnings of a Russian Invasion

The Buildup to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

According to Главком: In 2021, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and Britain's MI6 obtained intelligence indicating Russia was preparing for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and warned allied nations and Ukrainian officials. These warnings were met with skepticism from some NATO countries and segments of Ukraine's leadership. That spring, Russian forces began massing along Ukraine's borders and in occupied Crimea. In response, U.S. President Joe Biden called Vladimir Putin to urge de-escalation and proposed a summit, which took place in Geneva in June 2021. Four weeks after the meeting, Putin published an essay, and by September 2021, the military buildup along the borders had resumed.

Intelligence Assessments and the Threat

In November 2021, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines presented her assessments at a meeting of NATO intelligence chiefs in Brussels, where she was supported by the head of Britain's MI6, Richard Moore. In late October 2021, the CIA and MI6 had sent official memoranda with alarming intelligence assessments to Kyiv. Among these was a report that UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, during a visit to Kyiv in mid-November, informed Zelenskyy that London viewed an invasion as a matter of 'when,' not 'if.' However, the then-head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, advised Zelenskyy that the threat was exaggerated, despite Yermak's own contacts with Putin's deputy chief of staff, Dmitry Kozak.

By December 2021, the United States and Great Britain had gained sufficient clarity on Russia's war plan. According to Western intelligence services, Moscow believed only 10% of Ukrainians would resist an invasion. By early January 2022, details of the plan became known, which included:

• an invasion from multiple directions, including from Belarus;
• an airborne assault on Hostomel Airport;
• an assassination attempt on Zelenskyy;
• lists of 'problematic' pro-Ukrainian figures for internment or execution;
• pro-Russian individuals to be installed in a puppet government.

CIA Director William Burns flew to Kyiv to personally brief Zelenskyy on the situation. On February 12, 2022, after a call with Putin, Biden told his aides that an invasion had become inevitable. That same month, French President Emmanuel Macron, after six hours of negotiations in the Kremlin, announced he had received guarantees from Putin against escalation. On February 22, 2022, Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi attempted to secure the declaration of martial law, and the National Security and Defense Council voted for a state of emergency. That same day, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov delivered a top-secret report to Zelenskyy detailing a direct physical threat to the president, stating that assassination squads were already en route. The day after receiving the report, Zelenskyy met with the presidents of Poland and Lithuania.

Russian military command also anticipated a possible incursion by Ukrainian Armed Forces into Kursk Oblast and for several months had been developing plans to prevent it. The warnings from the CIA and MI6 about the threat of a Russian invasion thus had serious consequences for Ukrainian authorities and the international community. This intelligence sharing highlights the critical, though sometimes contested, role of Western spy agencies in modern geopolitical crises.

Consequently, the warnings and assessments from Western intelligence agencies became crucial factors influencing the subsequent actions of Ukrainian leadership and its international partners.

The reaction to these warnings proved mixed, but ultimately confirmed the seriousness of the threat posed by Russia and formed the basis for mobilizing efforts to defend Ukraine. The disclosure of these events underscores the importance of international intelligence cooperation and coordination among nations in matters of global security.