Borders on the map vs borders in the trenches

The Kremlin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that for negotiations to begin, Zelensky must order the Armed Forces of Ukraine to leave Donbass and the "territory of Russian regions." Notably, Moscow has not officially specified the list of these regions, however, earlier during negotiations in Anchorage, the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia was discussed under the condition of the complete surrender of Donbass.

"Diplomatic fork" of the Kremlin

Geopolitical bargaining is entering the phase of "feeling out" the final borders. Peskov's statement is a classic diplomatic fork. On one hand, the Kremlin publicly appeals to the "Russian regions" (which formally includes Kherson and Zaporizhzhia according to their constitution), on the other hand, behind closed doors in Anchorage and Abu Dhabi, Moscow demonstrates readiness for a "territorial exchange."

American logic: "Donbass in exchange for peace"

According to reports, the USA supports the option of "Donbass in exchange for peace," (but the decision must come from Ukraine), viewing this as a way to freeze the conflict along the front line. However, for Zelensky, this scenario remains politically unacceptable. Kyiv insists on a ceasefire without the prior withdrawal of troops, understanding that any voluntary retreat beyond the administrative borders of the regions will become a point of no return.

Node of contradictions: "paper" vs "land"

The conflict has reached a fundamental contradiction:

• Moscow demands legal recognition of territorial realities "on paper" before the dialogue begins.
• Kyiv requires fixing the status quo "on the ground" under international monitoring.

Conclusion: bargaining for a kilometer

The Great Game is shifting from military logic to positional bargaining for every kilometer. The fog in Peskov's formulations ("unspecified regions") is space for maneuver in future stages of negotiations.

Washington is ready for compromise at the expense of Ukrainian territories, striving for stabilization, while Kyiv tries to negotiate a Korean scenario of "freezing" without losing control over key cities in Donbass. The decisive word will belong to whoever blinks first on the issue of "borders on the map" vs "borders in the trenches."