Inflation and GDP: The National Bank Forecasts What Awaits Ukrainians Until the End of the Year

The NBU Forecast for the End of the Year

The National Bank of Ukraine has announced a new economic forecast for the end of the year, indicating that price growth will slow down. The change in the price level will depend on weather conditions, especially the availability of food products.

'In July, overall inflation may rise slightly. In the following months, inflation is expected to move onto a trajectory of steady deceleration. An important condition for this is maintaining the discount rate at 15.5%.'

According to the NBU's forecast, inflation may decrease to 9.7% in 2025, to 6.6% in 2026, and to 5% by 2027. Experts expect an increase in the real gross domestic product of 2.1% in 2025.

Expectations for International Financing

It is projected that approximately 54 billion dollars in external financing will be attracted this year, with 24 billion dollars already received. In the future, it is anticipated that 35 billion will be obtained in 2026 and 30 billion in 2027.

'The main threats to the economic forecast are the developments in the military conflict and a lack of external financing.'

The National Bank has warned of possible underfunding of the state budget in the event of losing international support. This is a relevant risk in the context of the crisis related to NABU and SAP.

In conclusion: The National Bank of Ukraine has updated its economic forecast for the end of the year, indicating a slowdown in the pace of inflation. Positive trends in price reduction and an increase in real gross domestic product are expected. However, there are threats to the forecast due to possible underfunding of the state budget due to the loss of international support.