USD and EUR Exchange Rate Forecast for Ukraine: May 28 to June 3

Currency Exchange Rate Outlook in Ukraine

According to ХВИЛЯ: From May 28 through June 3, the value of the US dollar and the euro in Ukraine will be shaped by several critical factors. These include actions by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), geopolitical tensions-particularly around the Strait of Hormuz-and early signals from Kevin Warsh, who replaced Jerome Powell as Chair of the US Federal Reserve on May 15. Financial expert Oleksiy Kozyrev presented the exchange rate forecast.

According to Kozyrev, investors will closely watch the new Fed Chair’s remarks. Meanwhile, the US annual inflation rate has climbed to 3.8%, driven by higher energy prices. Brent crude oil has fallen to $93 per barrel, a shift that will also affect the broader economic landscape.

Currency Projections and NBU Impact

The euro-to-dollar exchange rate for this period is expected to trade within a corridor of 1.1151 to 1.1176 dollars per euro, with daily fluctuations of 0.3 to 0.6 cents. Brent oil is forecast to range between $86 and $105 per barrel, while gold is projected at $4,390 to $4,680 per troy ounce, with daily swings of $40 to $70 per ounce.

To support the hryvnia, experts estimate the NBU will need to spend between $690 million and $830 million from its reserves. On the interbank market, the dollar is expected to trade between 43.95 and 44.60 UAH, and the euro between 51.10 and 51.95 UAH. Banks are likely to offer cash dollars at 43.80–44.80 UAH and cash euros at 51.00–52.10 UAH. At exchange kiosks, the dollar will trade at 43.90–44.70 UAH, and the euro at 51.10–52.00 UAH. The spread for the dollar at kiosks will be 15–20 kopiyky, and for the euro 20–40 kopiyky. In some exchange points inside shopping malls, the spread could reach 1 hryvnia.

'This is currently a sufficient working amount to support the hryvnia,' noted Oleksiy Kozyrev.

Starting June 1, new NBU limits will take effect: up to 50,000 UAH for purchasing foreign currency on cards, and up to 200,000 UAH for foreign currency deposits with terms longer than three months.

Consequently, the upcoming week will be pivotal for Ukraine’s currency exchange rates, given both domestic and international economic factors.

Looking at the situation, the currency market in Ukraine remains under pressure from a mix of economic and political forces. Specifically, the NBU’s measures to stabilize the hryvnia and the fresh restrictions on currency transactions could significantly influence trading. Investors should monitor the new Fed Chair’s comments, as those decisions may have substantial global economic and exchange rate implications. Amid uncertainty-especially from geopolitical risks-adapting to evolving conditions will be a key challenge for Ukrainian financial institutions and depositors.

As the NBU prepares to navigate the upcoming fluctuations in the currency market, it is essential to consider the recent trends outlined in the latest exchange rate updates from May 21. Understanding these shifts can provide valuable insights into the potential impacts on the dollar and euro as they continue to respond to global economic factors.