Ukrainian Hryvnia's Path Next Week Hinges on Fed, ECB, and National Bank Decisions

Currency Forecast for the Upcoming Week in Ukraine

According to ХВИЛЯ: Analysts anticipate potential volatility for the Ukrainian hryvnia in the coming week, particularly between March 17 and 19. This period coincides with key policy meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). The cash U.S. dollar rate in banks is projected to fluctuate between UAH 43.60 and 44.80, while exchange offices may offer it from UAH 43.65 to 44.75. The cash euro in banks is expected to trade within a range of UAH 50.10 to 51.80, and between UAH 50.15 and 51.70 at financial company exchange points.

Key Factors Influencing the Currency Market

The euro-dollar pair is likely to hold within a corridor of 1.136 to 1.17. The most significant swings for this pair are expected on March 18 and 19, with daily jumps of up to 1.5 cents possible. Three primary global factors are exerting pressure on the currency market:

• Ongoing conflict in the Middle East, raising the risk of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz;
• Sharp fluctuations in global oil prices;
• Imminent interest rate decisions from the Fed and the ECB.

The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its deposit rate at 2%, while the Federal Reserve will likely keep its rate in the 3.5-3.75% per annum range. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is also poised to take action to support the hryvnia, potentially drawing between $630 million and $820 million from its international reserves, which stood at nearly $55 billion as of March 1. The NBU could supply banks with up to $100 million and €50 million in cash.

On March 19, the NBU will decide on the fate of its key policy rate, which could theoretically be lowered from the current 15% to 14-14.5%. These monetary policy decisions from the world's leading central banks can significantly impact emerging market currencies like the hryvnia. The combined effect of these decisions could substantially influence Ukraine's currency market, especially amid the current international instability.

"The upcoming Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings could be pivotal events shaping the direction of currency fluctuations in Ukraine."

In a climate of global economic uncertainty, the interest rate paths set by these institutions affect capital flows and investor sentiment worldwide. The NBU's readiness to deploy its reserves underscores the critical importance of currency stability for Ukraine's economy during these challenging times.

In light of the upcoming monetary policy decisions, it is crucial to monitor the latest trends affecting the hryvnia. For a comprehensive overview of the official and bank exchange rates as of March 14, 2026, and insights into the currency's stability, check out this article on the Ukrainian Hryvnia's performance. Understanding these factors will provide essential context for the anticipated fluctuations next week.