Dairy products are expected to become cheaper by 2026: butter prices will drop by 30%

Price forecasts for dairy products in Ukraine

Dairy products in Ukraine may decrease in price by mid-2026, with butter prices dropping by 30-35% by the New Year holidays. These forecasts were made by expert Olena Zupinas, noting that the decline in prices for fatty dairy products is already being observed in the global market.

Since the end of summer 2023, butter prices worldwide have decreased by more than 30%. This has affected Ukrainian exporters, who sold butter to the EU last year for 7 euros per kilogram, whereas its current price is 4.5 euros. Olena Zupinas also noted that the drop in butter prices has significantly impacted the purchasing prices for raw milk.

The milk market situation

In mid-November 2023, the price of 'extra' class milk fell by 17%. This decline, along with future forecasts, may serve as a positive signal for consumers. However, it is worth noting that during 2024, the prices for raw milk in Ukraine increased by 20%, reaching 42.45 dollars per 100 kg. Additionally, the share of imported cheeses in the domestic market reached 47%, indicating changes in the structure of dairy product consumption.

Future forecasts suggest that the price of butter in the EU is expected to be 7200-7400 euros per ton in May 2025. Thus, the decrease in dairy product prices may reflect global trends and impact the market in Ukraine in the coming years.

The anticipated decline in dairy product prices in Ukraine over the next few years could positively affect the consumer market and ensure product availability for the population. However, it is important to consider that fluctuations in prices on global markets and changes in consumption patterns may impact the overall economic situation in the country's agricultural sector. Consumers should be cautious, as prices for raw milk have already risen, and the share of imported products continues to grow, which may alter the competitiveness of Ukrainian producers.