NBU kept the key rate at 15.5%: when to expect a decrease

According to НБУ: The NBU's Board decided to maintain the key rate at 15.5%. This decision was made after discussions at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting, where issues of slowing inflation and risks to price dynamics were considered. Committee members expressed support for keeping the rate at the current level, considering it necessary to combat pro-inflationary risks.

Most experts predict a possible decrease in the key rate to 12.5% by the end of 2026, if risks associated with external financing decrease. However, some participants in the discussion believe that pro-inflationary risks due to the war will persist, which will limit the ability to lower the rate and predict that it will remain at 13–14%.

“A sustainable slowdown in inflation with some advance on the NBU's forecast is a strong reason for cautious easing of policy, and risks related to external assistance should be addressed only if they materialize.”

All this confirms that the National Bank continues to closely monitor the situation in the financial market and rationally choose a monetary policy strategy to achieve the established inflation target.