Russia will need 108 years to occupy Ukraine at the current pace

Russia will need over a century to completely seize the territory of Ukraine if the pace of its advance remains as it is now. According to estimates from The Economist, even the completion of the occupation of only four partially occupied regions - Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia - will take at least until June 2030.

How much territory has Russia seized in a month

Since October 2022, when the front line stabilized after the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the situation has not changed much. In the last 30 days, Russia has managed to advance by only 0.4% of the territory of Ukraine - without any strategic achievements.

Russian army losses in 2025

According to the publication, the losses of the Russian army since the beginning of the full-scale invasion until January 2025 reached 640–877 thousand people, of which 137–228 thousand have died. By October, these figures had increased by almost 60% - to 984 thousand - 1.43 million losses, among which from 190 to 480 thousand - the dead.

The Economist compares these losses with the pre-war number of men in Russia: from 0.5% to 1.2% of all men under 60 years old. In Ukraine, however, analysts estimate that the share of those killed and missing is about 0.6–1.3%.

Experts from the publication emphasize that a sudden breakthrough of Ukrainian defenses is unlikely: constant drone monitoring and accurate long-range strikes make any mass concentration of troops practically suicide. The only thing left for the Russian army is to slowly advance by sending small groups into the 'death zone'.

According to The Economist, even such an approach may turn out to be fatal for Russia:

• The war is draining the aggressor's resources.

• Western support allows Ukraine to maintain its defense.

• The military-economic collapse of Russia may happen sooner than a breakthrough at the front.

The material states: if the West continues to support Kyiv, hostilities will continue, but the pace of the Russian offensive will remain minimal. 

Previously, we reported that Russia is preparing a new offensive in Donetsk: why the direction remains critical.