Government Unveils 2027-2029 Economic Outlook for Ukraine

Ukraine's Economic and Social Development Forecast for 2027-2029

According to Главком: On June 4, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved Resolution No. 695, which sets the country's economic and social development forecast for the 2027-2029 period. This projection anticipates growth in gross domestic product (GDP), an increase in average monthly wages, and a decline in inflation rates. For context, such medium-term forecasts are crucial for planning national budgets and attracting foreign investment.

Key Forecast Indicators

• GDP Growth:
  • 2027: 4.5%
  • 2028: 5.3%
  • 2029: 6.7%
• Lower Growth Under Less Favorable Conditions:
  • 2027: 1.3%
  • 2028: 4.1%
  • 2029: 5%
• Inflation:
  • 2027: 8.9%
  • 2028: 6.9%
  • 2029: 5.1%
• Average Monthly Salary:
  • 2027: UAH 35,010
  • 2028: UAH 39,362
  • 2029: UAH 44,083
• Employed Population:
  • 2027: Approximately 12.9 million people
  • 2029: Expected to rise to 13.4 million people
• Unemployment Rate:
  • 2027: 12.7%
  • 2028: 12.9%
  • 2029: 12.7%

Meanwhile, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has revised its 2026 growth forecast for Ukraine’s economy downward from 2.5% to 2.2%. Notably, GDP rose by 0.9% in April 2026, and over the first four months of that year, the economic contraction slowed to just 0.2%. These figures suggest potential positive momentum for Ukraine’s economy in the coming years.

The Cabinet-approved forecast reflects an optimistic perspective on Ukraine’s economic trajectory, emphasizing GDP growth and improvements in living standards. While lower inflation and higher wages point to better economic conditions, the persistent unemployment rate highlights the ongoing need for labor market reforms.

Adjustments in forecasts from international financial institutions also underscore the importance of monitoring external economic factors that could affect the stability of Ukraine’s domestic economy.

As Ukraine navigates its economic challenges, the recent revised growth projections by the EBRD highlight the ongoing pressures stemming from the conflict. Understanding these external factors is essential for grasping the broader economic landscape and the implications for the government's optimistic outlook for 2027-2029.