Armenia Faces State Collapse as Its Reliance on Russia Backfires

Armenia’s Dangerous Dependence on Moscow

According to ХВИЛЯ: According to analyst Peter Zeihan, Armenia is trapped in a critical dilemma: either cooperate with Turkey or risk total collapse. The country’s deep reliance on Russia has become a major vulnerability. In the recent parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s ruling 'Civil Contract' party secured roughly 50% of the vote, giving it an absolute majority in parliament. Pro-Russian factions suffered a clear defeat, signaling a shift in the nation’s political direction.

For decades, Armenia relied on Russian security guarantees. However, the 2020 war with Azerbaijan drastically changed the landscape. During that conflict, Azerbaijan deployed Turkish-made weapons, while Armenia’s air force, tanks, and artillery were largely destroyed. This war marked the first large-scale conflict dominated by next-generation drone technology. Landlocked and lacking its own energy resources, Armenia gets most of its electricity from a single nuclear plant-fueled by Russian supplies. Its security was once guaranteed by a Russian military base, but Moscow is now fully focused on its war against Ukraine.

'Either they cooperate with the Turks to some degree, or they have nothing.' Peter Zeihan

Zeihan stressed that Armenia’s position has shifted from precarious to near-state collapse. As a result, Yerevan is being forced to explore cooperation with Turkey, even though the public strongly opposes this due to historical grievances. Armenians view Azerbaijan as Ankara’s ally, further complicating any potential reconciliation.

Additional Pressures and Obstacles

Compounding the crisis, rising tensions between Iran and the United States have cut off Armenia’s ability to use Iran as a trade corridor. Meanwhile, neighboring Georgia is sliding into authoritarianism and becoming an unreliable partner. Talks are ongoing between Yerevan, Baku, and Ankara over a trade corridor and Azerbaijani energy supplies. The Trump administration has joined these negotiations, with Vice President JD Vance promising American nuclear fuel for Armenia’s aging Soviet-era plant. However, it remains unclear whether U.S. manufacturers can produce compatible fuel rods for the outdated facility.

Armenia’s effort to break free from Russia’s orbit is complex and, according to Zeihan, will not be completed this year. 'I wouldn’t count them out when it comes to their ability to sabotage political agreements. That’s something they are very, very good at,' the analyst noted. Armenia must now navigate a delicate balance between external pressures and internal challenges to avoid further destabilization.

As Armenia’s political landscape shifts, the country is being forced to rethink its foreign policy. Its waning dependence on Russia is pushing Yerevan to seek new partnerships-including with Turkey, despite a fraught history. This transformation could have major implications for regional stability and Armenia’s own security.

The recent electoral success of Prime Minister Pashinyan's party highlights a significant shift in Armenia's political landscape, as the nation grapples with its precarious situation. This change in governance is crucial, especially as Armenia seeks to pivot away from Russian influence. For a deeper understanding of this evolving dynamic and its implications for regional alliances, read more about Armenia's western shift and the implications for its future.