Global Food Supply at Risk from Fertilizer Shortage Following Strait of Hormuz Blockade

How the Fertilizer Market Was Hit by the Strait of Hormuz Blockade

According to ХВИЛЯ: The March blockade of the Strait of Hormuz severely disrupted the global fertilizer and gas markets, triggering a sharp spike in prices. Countries heavily reliant on imports from the region, such as Brazil, India, and several African nations, were the hardest hit. While Ukraine does not depend on supplies from the Persian Gulf, it too faces price pressure due to the worldwide shortage. Russia, a major fertilizer exporter, stands to strengthen its market position amid the crisis. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global chokepoint for energy and agricultural inputs.

This vital shipping lane handles roughly one-third of the world's imported fertilizers, primarily urea and phosphate compounds. However, traffic through the strait nearly ground to a halt in early March. Where around 130 vessels crossed daily in February, only four were recorded on some days in the first week of March. Over two weeks, at least 22 attacks were documented on civilian ships attempting to breach the blockade.

Fertilizer prices reacted immediately. Ammonia surged to $750 per ton and urea to $683, representing a jump of nearly one-third in just weeks. In the U.S. and Canada, urea prices rose by more than 35% during the blockade. From late February to mid-March, gas prices more than doubled, increasing by 103%. The Gulf region supplies nearly half of global urea and sulfur exports and about 30% of traded ammonia.

Consequences for Import-Dependent Nations

China began releasing fertilizers from state reserves 15 days earlier than usual. In 2025, Brazil imported 100% of its consumed urea, with almost half of it shipped via the Strait of Hormuz. India spent $18 billion annually on fertilizer imports, with the Middle East covering over 40% of its urea and phosphate needs. In Bangladesh, four out of five fertilizer plants halted operations due to gas shortages, raising alarms in a nation of nearly 170 million people.

Sudan sourced over half of its imported fertilizers from the Persian Gulf region, while Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, and Mozambique depended on fertilizer imports for between a quarter and a third of their needs. Rising food and fuel prices could push approximately 45 million people, primarily in Africa and Asia, toward acute hunger.

In Ukraine in 2025, only two of six major ammonia plants were operational, and imports accounted for over 60% of nitrogen fertilizer consumption. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, due to the Middle East conflict, Ukrainian importers could overpay by about $140 million for fertilizers in 2026. Industry analysts forecast that the cost of growing wheat and corn will rise by 7%, and sunflower by 5%. Fertilizers constitute up to 30% of grain production costs.

Russia, as the world's largest fertilizer exporter, could leverage the situation to enhance its market share. India is already negotiating to increase fertilizer purchases from Russia, Belarus, and Morocco. Countries critically dependent on Middle Eastern supplies include:

• Brazil
• India
• Bangladesh
• Sudan
• Tanzania
• Kenya
• Somalia
• Mozambique

Ukraine's main fertilizer suppliers are Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan for urea, and Poland and Bulgaria for ammonium nitrate.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz underscores the critical importance of secure maritime routes for the global fertilizer market, with severe implications for the food security of import-dependent nations.

The ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz not only impact fertilizer supplies but also pose significant risks to global oil markets. As the blockade halts around 20% of the world's oil flow, the repercussions could ripple through various economies, affecting everything from transportation costs to food prices. To understand the broader implications of this situation, explore how the cessation of oil shipments is threatening global economic stability in our detailed analysis of the Strait of Hormuz blockade.