Refinery Strikes May Spell the Complete End of Petroleum Processing in Russia

The State of Oil Refining in European Russia

According to ХВИЛЯ: Oil processing in Russia's European territories could vanish altogether as a result of strikes targeting refineries. By July 2023, throughput at Russian plants had dropped to 3.6 million barrels per day, the weakest figure since May 2002. That volume runs roughly one-third below the usual seasonal rate, given that during the same period in 2020–2025 the facilities generally processed 5.3–5.6 million barrels per day.

According to the publication Khvylia, at least 30 attacks hit large refineries, tankers, and pipeline infrastructure in July. That makes it the second-highest monthly count since the start of the full-scale war. The industry treats 3.3–3.5 million barrels per day as a critical floor; if processing slips under that level, covering even domestic demand would become extremely difficult.

Outlook and Consequences

“I see a day in the near future when oil refining in European Russia disappears entirely - it simply won't be there.” - Mikhail Krutikhin, oil and gas market expert

Mikhail Krutikhin, an expert on the oil and gas market, said that if further strikes hit still-operating capacity, the loss of fuel output could not be compensated by mini-refineries, which he described as “moonshining.” Drone waves targeting facilities tend to arrive before damaged equipment has been repaired.

This situation endangers not only Russia's economy but also the global energy market. Lower refinery throughput could create fuel shortages inside Russia, driving prices and disrupting supply stability. With current geopolitical tensions, continued attacks on refining infrastructure could deepen the energy crisis and pose fresh challenges for governments and business.

Monitoring these developments is essential, as their consequences may extend well beyond the region's economy. For observers of global energy markets, these trends are a key indicator of the war's broader economic impact.