The price of diesel at gas stations continues to rise: reasons and where is the limit

The rapid rise in diesel prices in Europe immediately affected the Ukrainian market: wholesale and retail prices at gas stations went up again, with premium networks being the first to raise their prices. The dynamics are fueled by logistical disruptions, supply blockages, and a lack of alternative sources. This was reported by enkorr.

How diesel prices have changed

European quotations added 27 dollars per ton last week, and the total increase over two weeks exceeded 94 dollars. The purchasing price of fuel increased by 6 hryvnias per liter over the month. The situation in the Ukrainian market has been complicated by weather conditions in the south, restrictions on Romanian imports, and the absence of alternative supply routes.

The average wholesale price of diesel rose to 52.38 UAH per liter, while in retail, the weekly increase was 1.03 UAH. On the shelves, the reaction to the wholesale increase remained restrained, causing the margin to fall to the lowest level since February – 4.94 UAH per liter.

Who raised diesel prices the most

Amid declining margins, operators are forced to adjust retail prices. The highest increase in a week was recorded at the Market chain – plus 3 UAH per liter of diesel. Other operators also adjusted their prices:

• Market (+3 UAH/l), VST and Parallel (+2 UAH/l), SOCAR (+1–2 UAH/l), UPG (+1.60 UAH/l), OKKO, WOG, Chipo, KLO, Ukrnafta, and others (+1 UAH/l)

Despite the overall dynamics, 'anomalous' prices persist in the market. For instance, Faktor sold diesel almost a hryvnia cheaper than the average wholesale price, even though imports were minimal. A similar situation occurred in certain regions with BRS, where prices remained at 51.49–51.99 UAH per liter.

What will happen next

The market has potential for further growth of at least 2.50 UAH per liter. Prices barely react to the increase in wholesale prices, so a correction is inevitable. Compensating for the margin drop in diesel with other types of fuel is difficult: gasoline is rising very slowly, and liquefied gas remains stable.