Europe Divided: Who Chooses China Over the United States?

Public First Survey Results

According to Главком: A survey conducted by Public First across 24 European Union member states has revealed significant differences in opinion regarding the preferred primary international partner-the United States or China. The findings show:

• eight countries favor deeper collaboration with the People's Republic of China;
• nine countries lean toward strengthening ties with the United States;
• seven nations remain undecided;
• in 14 countries, the most common response was 'don't know.'

Among the nations more inclined to develop dialogue with Beijing are Italy and Spain. France and Germany are split between the US and China, while Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia choose partnership with the United States. The survey also revealed that 38% of respondents consider reducing economic dependence on China to be practically impossible, whereas 26% believe such a reduction is achievable. Another 19% think decreasing reliance on China is unnecessary.

Forecasts and Initiatives

The study found that 43% of respondents predict China will become the European Union's key trading partner within the next decade, while 27% believe the United States will maintain its leading role. According to the survey, residents of 23 out of the 24 countries studied foresee Beijing's dominance, with Lithuania being the sole exception where a majority expects long-term US leadership.

The European Commission has initiated negotiations with China to rebalance trade, aiming for results by October of this year. A deadline for progress on trade disputes between the EU and China has been set for that month. Meanwhile, the United States has proposed that the EU establish a strategic partnership in artificial intelligence, a plan presented to ambassadors of EU member states.

Seb Ryd remarked that 'European society has begun to see distancing from the US as a fully realistic and sometimes desirable prospect.'

Maroš Šefčovič added that 'by October, the relevant teams on both sides will have enough time to produce initial tangible results, though it will be difficult to completely resolve all disputes.' These comments underscore the complexity and significance of current international relations amid the transformation of global politics.

The survey results reflect growing ambiguity among EU countries regarding their choice of strategic partners in international politics. This situation points to potential shifts in economic and political relations among Europe, the United States, and China, which could influence the formation of new coalitions and alliances in the future. At the same time, initiatives from the European Commission and the United States indicate efforts to maintain influence in the region despite increasing competition from China.