The Kremlin has chosen escalation three times: why Russia does not stop the war

The Kremlin has chosen escalation three times: why Russia does not stop the war

According to Главком: Analyzing the evolution of the Kremlin's strategies in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian war, it can be stated that the Kremlin has chosen escalation three times, rather than optimal strategies to end the conflict. This observation highlights the seriousness of the situation that Russia finds itself in and its refusal to engage in peaceful negotiations.

In February 2022, experts considered the most likely scenario to be that a full-scale war would not occur. However, the situation changed, and by April 2022, new predictions emerged suggesting that there would not be a war of attrition. This indicates that the Kremlin not only misjudged the situation but also chose the path of escalating the conflict.

In November 2025, it was expected that Russia might engage in peace negotiations, however, as practice shows, the Kremlin continues to escalate the situation. This decision is explained by the fact that a refusal to escalate is considered a defeat for the Russian leadership. Under conditions where the Kremlin cannot afford to stop the war, escalation becomes a tool that allows it to remain at the negotiating table, increasing the chances of gaining advantages in future agreements.

Consequences of escalation

Thus, the escalation of the war remains the Kremlin's key strategy, demonstrating its inflexibility in the conflict and unwillingness to seek peaceful solutions.

The Kremlin's refusal to engage in peace negotiations indicates its desire to maintain control over the situation, even despite the negative consequences for the country and its population. In light of changes in international politics and increased pressure from Western states, the escalation of military actions may lead to further isolation of Russia. This emphasizes the importance of monitoring the developments, as the dynamics of the conflict can have a significant impact on regional security and global relations.