Protests in Iran: up to 20 thousand dead and historical parallels with the fall of the Shah

Protests in Iran: Causes and Consequences

According to ХВИЛЯ: The protests in Iran, which began in late 2025, have led to the death of between 12 to 20 thousand people. This enormous number of casualties indicates a national-scale catastrophe. Historical experience shows that authoritarian regimes can fall under the pressure of mass protests, especially in conditions of escalating violence.

Causes of the Situation in Iran

The factors that influenced the situation in Iran are multifaceted. First, the loss of legitimacy of power has become one of the key factors. Public sentiment and growing dissatisfaction of the population have led to a loss of support for the regime. Second, the overload of the state has been the result of an inadequate response to social challenges and economic problems that have accumulated over the years. A third important aspect is the escalation of violence, which only intensifies protest sentiments and leads to even greater confrontation between the authorities and citizens.

Demographics and the expectations of the population also play an important role in shaping the protest movement. The younger generation, seeking change, is becoming a significant factor in the fight for rights and freedoms. Last but not least is the narrative collapse, when official information and propaganda are no longer perceived by the population. These factors together create a complex picture in which the people demand change and justice.

The events in Iran echo the fall of the Shah's regime in 1978-1979, which cost between 3-4 thousand to 40-60 thousand lives. Black Friday in Iran became the culmination of protests against the Shah's regime, and today's events may mark a new milestone in the country's history. The situation remains tense, and the further development of events will depend on the authorities' ability to adequately respond to the challenges facing society.

The significance of these protests goes beyond national borders, as they may influence political stability throughout the Middle East region. Given the historical context and the possibility of repeating situations similar to those that occurred in the past, the international community is closely monitoring developments in Iran. The authorities' response and the society's readiness for dialogue could become decisive factors in the further development of the country. The experiences of past protests and their consequences can serve as an important lesson for Iranian society and the authorities in the future.