Only 30% of refugees can return to Ukraine: what has changed the demographers' predictions

According to glavcom.ua: Hopes for the return of refugees from the war seem increasingly fantastical. Demographers talk about only 30%, and even this figure is now under threat. Oleksandr Hladun, Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, stated that previous predictions about half of the refugees returning have proven insignificant. Now scientists are calculating based only on 30%.

'If people understand that the war may return, they will not want to rely on its cessation for a long time and will not risk their children's future,' emphasized Hladun.

The scholar identified two key factors that will influence the number of returned individuals: the duration of the war and the conditions of peace. The liberation of all territories will be an impetus for return, while a frozen conflict is the worst option. Despite the complicated forecasts, 30% can become the foundation for reconstruction, but everything will depend on the security guarantees that Ukraine will receive after the end of hostilities.

Return of wartime migrants

Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute of Demography of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, called for supporting the return of wartime migrants, but cautiously, without granting special preferences. According to her, the most important thing is to ensure safety, housing, and jobs, but not to create social tension in society.

Currently, forecasts regarding the return of refugees are very ambiguous, but it is important to create conditions so that each person can decide where it is better for them to be - to rebuild life at home or to remain abroad.