The Kremlin Acknowledges Deadlock: Russia's Offensive Resource is Depleting

Sentiments in the Kremlin and the Situation on the Front

According to Главком: Among the top military-political leadership of Russia, confusion is growing. High-ranking officials openly acknowledge that the war against Ukraine has reached a deadlock. Both in Kyiv and in the West, there is a belief that Moscow's offensive potential is close to exhaustion. Ukrainian forces have managed to stabilize the front line and stop the latest wave of the occupiers' advance. The use of drone technology has played a crucial role in changing the course of hostilities - it has given Ukraine a strategic advantage.

The mass and effective use of drones allows the Armed Forces of Ukraine to compensate for personnel shortages and inflict record losses on the enemy. Regular strikes by Ukrainian drones on rear facilities and even Moscow have effectively brought the war onto the territory of the aggressor. European diplomats describe the current atmosphere in the Russian capital as grim. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin intends to conclude combat operations by the end of this year, but only on terms he considers victorious - primarily, full control over Donbas.

Casualties and Shifts in Strategy

According to Western intelligence estimates, the Russian army loses about 35,000 soldiers killed and wounded each month. Independent Russian journalists count 352,000 dead occupiers, of which approximately 217,800 have been confirmed by name. Since the beginning of the year, the number of Russian Armed Forces personnel has ceased to grow - for the fifth consecutive month, losses exceed mobilization capabilities.

Since January 2026, the total losses of the Russian army have exceeded 141,500 people, of which more than 83,000 are irrecoverable. Ukrainian forces are attempting to shift to asymmetrical tactics, which allows them to effectively hold back the enemy. Analysts at Bloomberg note,

“Ukraine and its allies are increasingly convinced that the Russian invasion is running out of steam: Kyiv has stabilized the front and halted Moscow's spring offensive.”

Putin wants to end the war by the end of the year, but exclusively on his terms - including control over Donbas, which his troops have been unable to capture for more than ten years. Furthermore, he is seeking a broad security agreement with Europe that would consolidate Russia's territorial gains. The situation both on the battlefield and in political circles in Russia indicates that the conflict continues to alter the balance of power in the region and affect global geopolitics.

Current events in Ukraine and Russia demonstrate growing tensions that may impact the further development of the crisis. Personnel and resource losses raise questions about the Kremlin's military ambitions, while Ukraine, leveraging advanced technology, is strengthening its positions. All of this could push the international community towards new diplomatic steps in search of a peaceful resolution and stabilization of the situation.

Amid growing pressure and uncertainty, Estonian intelligence analysts emphasize that Putin is faced with a difficult choice that could significantly influence Russia's further actions in the conflict. The situation at the front requires the Kremlin to reconsider its strategy and make measured decisions to avoid further losses and instability within the country.