Ukraine Targets Record Grain Harvest of Over 60 Million Tonnes by 2026

Forecast for Ukraine's 2026 Grain Harvest

According to Главком: Ukraine is aiming to harvest approximately 60.4 million tonnes of key grain crops in 2026. This projection was announced by Taras Vysotskyi, Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture, during the 'Bread Industry-2026' forum. However, risks remain due to a cold spring, and the focus is shifting toward domestic grain processing rather than exporting raw materials.

The 2026 wheat harvest is forecast at 22.4 million tonnes-more than three times the country's domestic need of 6.4 million tonnes. Including carryover stocks, the total wheat supply on the market is expected to reach around 26.6 million tonnes. The available food-grade wheat for milling could amount to 11.7 million tonnes. Meanwhile, barley output is projected at 4.7 million tonnes, and corn at 31.6 million tonnes.

Agriculture Sector and Weather-Related Risks

Total planted area for spring crops in 2026 is expected to remain steady at 22–22.5 million hectares. However, the spring sowing campaign started later than usual this year due to deeper soil freezing and a longer-lasting snow cover. Taras Vysotskyi noted that

“weather risks currently apply mainly to corn, as this crop is most dependent on planting timing, temperature conditions, and moisture levels during the growing season.”

He also emphasized that the forecasts for wheat and barley are realistic and reliable enough to maintain the country's food balance, and that the agricultural sector has shown strong adaptability even under challenging circumstances.

In 2025, Ukraine's grain harvest stood at 56 million tonnes, including:

• wheat – 21.5 million tonnes,
• barley – 5 million tonnes,
• corn – 28.5 million tonnes.

It is worth noting that in 2025, Ukraine lost roughly 3 million tonnes of grain that could have been exported due to Russian strikes on its ports. Drawing from this experience, farmers are now prioritizing the domestic market and grain processing-a shift that could prove crucial for ensuring the country's food security amid ongoing challenges.

This information highlights how Ukraine's agricultural sector is adapting to new realities, particularly in the face of external threats and internal demand. By concentrating on processing grain domestically, Ukraine can reduce its reliance on foreign markets and secure food supplies for its population. Successfully meeting these harvest forecasts could also strengthen the country's position in the global food market, should conditions allow for exports. At the same time, weather-related risks remain significant and may affect the overall outcome of the sowing campaign.

As Ukraine adapts its agricultural strategies, understanding the implications of these changes is crucial for stakeholders. The recent forecast highlights a potential shift in crop priorities, which could affect both domestic consumption and export capabilities. For a deeper insight into how Ukraine is modifying its crop structure for the upcoming season, explore more about the new grain harvest strategies.