There Will Not Be Enough People for Post-War Reconstruction in Ukraine: Expert Voskoboynyk
Ukraine is entering the phase of post-war reconstruction amidst a deep demographic and staffing crisis. The state still does not have accurate data on the population, as a census has not been conducted since 2001, making all indicators evaluations. This explains the difference in estimates of the number of Ukrainians abroad – from 8.5 to 11 million. This is reported by the Office of Migration Policy.
As emphasized by Vasyl Voskoboynyk, head of the NGO Office of Migration Policy and president of the All-Ukrainian Association of Companies for International Employment, the real picture can only be obtained after the war ends and a full census is conducted.
Staffing Crisis in Ukraine: The Paradox of Unemployment and Workforce Shortage
Despite a formally high unemployment rate, businesses are already facing a sharp shortage of personnel. According to company estimates, about 75% of employers cannot fill open vacancies.
«We have a paradox: on one hand – unemployment, on the other – a catastrophic shortage of labor. This is structural unemployment, where people's qualifications do not meet the needs of the economy,» explains Voskoboynyk.
The economy needs the most:
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builders and welders
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drivers and public utilities workers
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energy specialists and technical professionals
The expert emphasizes that the country needs mass retraining of hundreds of thousands of people, not isolated training programs.
Return of Ukrainians and Challenges for the Country's Reconstruction
The staffing deficit is exacerbated by several factors: mass migration, occupation of some territories, mobilization, and rapid aging of the population. It is estimated that Ukraine loses about 300 thousand people each year.
According to Voskoboynyk, the longer the war lasts, the fewer Ukrainians are willing to return. People abroad are integrating, working, educating their children, and buying homes. According to optimistic forecasts, about 30% of migrants may return, while 70% will remain outside the country. Even in the best-case scenario, it is no more than about 100 thousand returns per year.
As of 2023, the Ministry of Economy estimated the shortage of labor at 4.5 million people, while international organizations are now talking about 8-9 million workers needed for reconstruction.
The expert concludes that without a systematic migration and staffing policy, Ukraine risks facing a situation where there will simply be no one to rebuild the country.
Let us recall that Ukraine is negotiating with the EU on the return of refugees.
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