Zelensky’s Visit to Yerevan Signals Russia’s Declining Influence in the Caucasus

The South Caucasus Is Slipping Beyond Moscow’s Control

According to ХВИЛЯ: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s trip to Yerevan on May 4–5, 2026, took place alongside summits of the European Political Community and Armenia-EU meetings, underscoring Russia’s waning sway over the South Caucasus. The visit’s highlight was the signing of a strategic partnership document between Yerevan and Paris, pointing to a shift in Armenia’s foreign policy direction.

Key European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, participated in the concurrent summits. These events unfold even as a Russian military base remains stationed in Armenia, along with FSB border guards. Despite this, Armenia formally continues as a military ally of Russia, yet support for pro-Moscow factions does not exceed 22–27%.

Shifts in Regional Politics

Analyst Tigran Avakyan stated on political scientist Yuriy Romanenko’s broadcast that Zelensky’s visit to Yerevan represents an 'unconventional blow to the Kremlin' and marks Russia’s final push out of the South Caucasus. Avakyan emphasized:

“Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in a state that Moscow used to consider its own domain. This is a turning point in the region’s history.” - Tigran Avakyan

He also noted that 'they lack the electoral resources to win' in Armenia’s upcoming parliamentary elections.

According to Avakyan, the Armenian people remember how previous authorities kept the country isolated and stifled its economy, so 'at best, they can get a faction into parliament.' He added that 'the process can no longer be stopped,' and the West has confirmed its entry into Armenia, signaling changes in regional politics. These developments indicate that the South Caucasus is definitively moving out of Moscow’s control, opening new avenues for cooperation between Armenia and Western nations.

Zelensky’s visit to Armenia and the strategic partnership with France highlight a shift in the region’s geopolitical landscape. The erosion of Russian influence in the South Caucasus creates fresh opportunities for Armenia to build economic and political ties with Western countries. These processes could significantly affect regional stability and security, as well as Armenia’s foreign policy trajectory, potentially leading to a realignment of strategic alliances in the near future.

As the geopolitical landscape shifts, Zelensky's recent engagement in Armenia highlights not only the evolving dynamics in the region but also the significance of his first visit in over two decades. For a deeper understanding of the objectives behind this pivotal trip and its implications for Armenia's future, explore our analysis of Zelenskyy's key goals during his visit.