Three Key Reasons Why Western Defense Startups Are Failing in Ukraine

According to ХВИЛЯ: Western defense startups are struggling to succeed in Ukraine, according to analyst Michael Kofman in a recent episode of the War on the Rocks podcast. He identifies several core issues: a lack of on-the-ground experience, a broken feedback loop, and a fundamental mismatch between what the Pentagon prioritizes and what Ukrainian soldiers actually need. Kofman also notes that Russian electronic warfare (EW) is often used as a scapegoat for design flaws in these products.

Kofman, who visits Ukrainian front-line units on a quarterly basis, observes that FPV drones emerged as strike weapons in 2023. In early June, they were not yet a major threat, but by late summer (August–September), they had created a no-go zone, preventing anyone from approaching positions closer than 5 km from the front line. At the time of recording, that dangerous zone had expanded to 20–25 km. By 2024, drones began evolving into counter-drone tools.

Major Issues Facing Western Companies

Kofman highlights three broad categories of problems for Western firms in Ukraine: inexperience, poor execution, and design failures. Execution issues include an ineffective feedback loop.

'The feedback loop I see is not working well. If you want to improve the equipment-and most Western gear arriving there works poorly or not at all out of the box, that's the reality-it needs to be refined.' - Michael Kofman

Testing challenges arise because combat trials reveal that products initially underperform and require upgrades. The Ukrainian battlefield is highly varied, complicating this process. Meanwhile, Kofman points to design failures, explaining that companies typically cater to Pentagon requirements rather than Ukraine’s needs, where the military demands the cheapest and most cost-effective solutions.

'Most people companies send to Ukraine are sales or contract support managers. They are not R&D. They are not engineers who know the product and can tinker with it,' Kofman stresses. He adds that firms manufacturing their products in Ukraine with sufficient local staff have seen success stories.

Kofman also notes that 'mass precision' provided by drones serves as a massive force multiplier for prepared defenses, offsetting shortages of equipment and personnel. Currently, Russia launches one-way drones at Ukraine at a rate of over 5,000 per month, raising questions about the effectiveness of aviation on the battlefield. 'If you look at the mass strikes of one-way drones that Russia is launching at Ukraine at a rate of over 5,000 per month, and add all those drones operating just tens of meters above the battlefield, it's not at all clear how aviation helps here,' he concludes.

Kofman’s analysis paints a complex picture of Western technologies clashing with the realities of the Ukrainian battlefield. For new technologies to be effectively deployed, a stronger focus on the specific requirements of Ukrainian troops is essential, along with improved communication and feedback between developers and end-users. This approach could be key to successfully integrating Western tech into the conflict in Ukraine.

As Western defense startups grapple with the challenges in Ukraine, it's essential to consider how these obstacles are positioned against evolving tactics in drone warfare. The recent analysis on Russia's strategic shifts in drone technology reveals a significant transformation in military dynamics that may further complicate the situation for these companies. Understanding these developments provides crucial context for assessing the future of defense innovation in the region.