New Tactics of Russia: Why the Energy System is Vulnerable This Winter

Energy expert Viktor Kurtev confidently stated that the Ukrainian energy system is ready for the heating season and can avoid power outages in an average winter. He also noted that lost capacities have been restored and repair works completed. The last nuclear unit is planned to be repaired in the coming weeks, allowing for full electricity generation capacity to be operational.

'If we have an average winter, we can get through without outages. We might even have a slight energy surplus.'

the expert emphasized. However, during prolonged severe frosts down to -15 to -20 degrees Celsius, a slight deficit may arise, which could be compensated by importing electricity from EU countries.

New Tactics of Terror: From 'Scattering' to Destruction

According to the expert, the main threat is the change in the Russian military's approach to attacks on infrastructure. They are now acting more concentrated and methodically, striking targets sequentially. This change in tactics may extend not only to substations and the infrastructure of Ukrzaliznytsia but also to electricity generation facilities.

'Now they are systematically hitting a target with concentrated strikes.'

the expert explains. This complicates the situation as previous mistakes in protecting the energy system have not been fully accounted for.

Therefore, the stability of electricity supply in Ukraine during the winter of 2025-2026 will depend on the effectiveness of air defense and the ability to resist new, more concentrated tactics of Russian attacks.