War Threatens Russia’s Status as a Major Power, WSJ Analysis Warns

Assessing the Risks Facing Russia

According to ХВИЛЯ: In a recent analysis for The Wall Street Journal, commentator Walter Russell Mead examines how setbacks in the war with Ukraine, diminished influence in the Black Sea and post-Soviet states, along with an energy crisis and demographic decline, could cost Russia its standing as a great power. President Vladimir Putin now faces his most significant political challenge since 1999, when Boris Yeltsin handed him the keys to the Kremlin. The conflict in Ukraine has exposed major flaws in the Russian military, including its failure to capture the strategic port of Odesa in 2022 and Ukraine’s success in pushing the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol.

Russia has historically dominated the Black Sea since the era of Catherine the Great, but its grip is now weakening, especially in the Caucasus and Central Asia. The United States, China, and Turkey are actively expanding their economic and military ties with post-Soviet republics, further complicating Moscow’s position. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has resisted Putin’s pressure to use Belarusian territory for the war, another sign of the Kremlin’s declining clout.

Domestic Struggles and Their Fallout

Recent weeks have been a nightmare for Putin. Long-range Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia have disrupted the lives of millions. Frontline casualties are draining a population that is already shrinking. In occupied Crimea, blackouts and fuel shortages have paralyzed daily life for residents. Most tellingly, Russia’s failure in the Black Sea stands out, and the prospects of regaining its position in this strategic area look bleak.

Additionally, the crisis in the Middle East, which might have previously served as a lifeline for Putin by boosting oil prices, has now subsided. Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries are limiting crude exports, undermining the Russian economy. If Iran and the United States reach a deal, the Kremlin could face a collapse in oil revenues. Falling prices combined with reduced production threaten a sharp drop in budget income.

On the technological front, Russian scientists may struggle to counter Ukraine’s advantages in this field. Putin is seeking ways to leverage his nuclear arsenal, cyber capabilities, and hybrid tactics to tip the balance. However, as Mead notes,

“the laws of historical gravity eventually make themselves felt.”

Putin had hoped to revive Russia as a superpower, but his successors may increasingly have to settle for far less ambitious goals.

Among the forces of historical gravity are:

• a shrinking population;
• a failing technology sector;
• post-Cold War economic struggles;
• the rise of China;
• and persistent nationalism in former Soviet republics.

A world where Russia can no longer threaten its neighbors would mean the momentum behind Europe’s rearmament fades, while China might be tempted to reclaim territories lost under the tsars. Turkey, in turn, could expand its influence in the Balkans and the Middle East.

This analysis highlights the critical challenges Russia faces and could signal shifts on the global geopolitical map. The loss of influence in the post-Soviet space and the weakening of its Black Sea position may have long-term consequences not only for Moscow but also for regional security. As a result, new strategic alliances and conflicts could emerge, shaping global politics in the years ahead.

In light of these developments, it is crucial to understand how the ongoing conflict has left Putin facing unprecedented challenges that threaten his grip on power. The interplay of military setbacks and domestic unrest highlights the precarious state of Russia's leadership amid intensifying geopolitical pressures.