Ukrainian Dairy Market: Raw Material Prices Fall Due to Record Surplus

Ukrainian Dairy Market: Raw Material Prices Fall Due to Record Surplus

According to ХВИЛЯ: The Ukrainian dairy market is finishing 2025 in a significant surplus of raw materials, leading to a decrease in purchase prices. As of the end of December 2025, milk prices have dropped, and the trend toward decreasing prices will continue at the beginning of 2026.

The average price of extra-class milk at the end of the year is 15.30 UAH per kg, a decrease of 1.00 UAH. The average price of higher-class milk has decreased to 15.20 UAH per kg, which is 0.90 UAH lower than before. The price of first-class milk also showed a decrease, amounting to 14.80 UAH per kg, which is 1.10 UAH lower than previous figures. The weighted average price for the three classes of milk reached 15.20 UAH per kg excluding VAT.

Production and Consumption of Milk

Milk production in Ukraine in November 2025 increased by 35 thousand tons compared to the same period last year. At the same time, the average milk consumption in Ukraine is 200 kg per year per person. The forecast of the Milk Producers Association indicates that the balance of supply and demand in the market will recover by the end of the third quarter of 2026.

According to the data, the average price of extra-class milk ranges from 14.80 to 16.00 UAH per kg. For higher-class, the average price is 15.20 UAH per kg, with a range from 14.70 to 15.80 UAH per kg. The first class has an average price of 14.80 UAH per kg, fluctuating between 14.00 and 15.00 UAH per kg.

Georgiy Kukhaleyshvili notes that the trend of decreasing milk prices will also persist at the beginning of 2026.

However, despite the decrease in prices for raw milk, the Milk Producers Association reports that the production of butter and dry milk remains unprofitable.

The decline in raw milk prices in Ukraine reflects a complicated situation in the market, where the production surplus does not meet consumer demand. The forecasts from the Milk Producers Association indicate that improvement in the situation may only be seen in the middle of 2026, which may indicate the need to adapt production processes and optimize costs. At the same time, issues with the profitability of butter and dry milk production highlight the need to review pricing policies and strategies in the dairy products market.