Increase in energy tariffs in 2025: how it will affect the Ukrainian industry

Impact of tariff increases on Ukraine's industry in 2025

According to Главком: In 2025, Ukrainian industrial enterprises will face an increase in electricity and natural gas tariffs, which will lead to a decrease in production volumes and a reduction in budget revenues. In early December, the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities (NKREKP) made a decision to raise tariffs for electricity transmission and dispatching, as well as tariffs for natural gas distribution. These changes may have a significant impact on the country’s economy, especially in conditions where enterprises are already experiencing difficulties.

The Kryvyi Rih Iron Ore Plant will operate in 2025 at only 10-20% of pre-war volumes. At the same time, the Ingulets Mining and Processing Plant was stopped in 2024. Natural monopolies are passing their losses onto businesses through tariff increases, further complicating the situation for the industry. For example, the total net losses of 'ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih' in 2022-2024 reached almost $2.1 billion. Electricity costs can account for up to 60% of the cost of iron ore concentrate, which will significantly affect the competitiveness of the products.

Forecasts and situation analysis

According to forecasts, iron ore exports may decrease by 8-10% in 2025 and by 5% in 2026. Steel production in 2025 may drop by 4-5%, which will also negatively impact the overall state of the industry. Over the past five years, the largest metallurgical enterprises in Ukraine have paid taxes and fees amounting to UAH 190 billion, however, increasing tariffs may reduce these revenues.

Experts note that the regulatory environment does not promote industry development.

“Energy supply issues are critical for the mining industry,” says Stanislav Zinchenko.

The situation requires careful analysis and adaptation by the state to support the industry amid rising costs.

The increase in electricity and natural gas tariffs in Ukraine in 2025 may have serious consequences for the industrial sector, particularly for the metallurgical industry. This could lead to a decrease in production, a reduction in exports, and a decrease in tax revenues to the budget. In the context of ongoing economic challenges for Ukraine, it is crucial for state authorities to provide support to enterprises to avoid further exacerbation of the situation in the economy.