The Northern Sea Route has not replaced the Suez: Russia lacks technology

Russia's Problems with the Northern Sea Route

According to ХВИЛЯ: The problems that Russia faces in trying to turn the Northern Sea Route into an alternative to the Suez Canal highlight its technological dependence on other countries, especially China, as well as its insufficient infrastructure. Despite plans, the implementation of these ambitions has proved to be considerably more complex than expected due to a lack of necessary technologies.

One of the main challenges Russia has encountered is that the country has lost technological sovereignty in port development. This means that to successfully operate the Northern Sea Route, the latest technologies are required, which Russia cannot provide independently. For the normal functioning of this route over the next five years, approximately 60 million cubic meters of soil need to be dredged. However, throughout 2025, Russia managed to dredge only 2.2 million cubic meters, indicating serious limitations in the country's capabilities.

• Russia's industrial capacity in dredging turned out to be 30 times lower than critical needs.
• The global dredging market is controlled by several large companies, such as Boskalis, Van Oord, Jan De Nul, and DEME.

Thus, Russia's attempts to transform the Northern Sea Route into a competitive alternative to the Suez Canal currently do not justify themselves due to technological constraints and insufficient infrastructure, raising questions about the prospects for realizing this ambitious project.

Dependence on International Cooperation

This situation emphasizes not only the technological challenges Russia faces but also its dependence on international cooperation in critically important sectors. The loss of technological sovereignty could hinder the further development of the country's economy, especially in the context of global changes in maritime transport and trade. At the same time, it opens up new opportunities for other countries that may take advantage of the situation to strengthen their positions on the world stage.