Turkey Ends Its Balancing Act Between Moscow and NATO

The Shifting Partnership Between Turkey and Russia

According to ХВИЛЯ: The partnership between Turkey and Russia, initially forged during the Syrian civil war, is now unraveling. Ankara is stepping up its efforts to support Ukraine in the Middle East, according to a column by Gönül Tol, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, published in The New York Times.

Turkey launched its military operation in northern Syria in 2016 after securing approval from Russia, which controlled Syrian airspace at the time. In exchange, Ankara limited its assistance to Syrian rebels. However, the war in Ukraine has altered the power dynamic between Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin. Although Turkey refrained from joining Western sanctions against Russia, it became a key hub for Russian trade, investment, and energy flows.

Regional Order in Flux

The ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in late 2024 marked another major turning point in the region’s shifting order. Russia, preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, was unable to aid Assad, forcing Moscow to negotiate with the new government of Ahmed al-Sharaa. In April 2025, Volodymyr Zelensky made his first visit to Syria aboard a Turkish state aircraft, where he discussed military and energy cooperation with al-Sharaa and Turkey’s foreign minister.

Ankara is actively involved in rebuilding the Syrian army. Ukraine, for its part, can offer expertise in military manufacturing and drone warfare. Gönül Tol notes that

“it is clear that Ankara is no longer balancing between Moscow and NATO and is tilting the playing field against Putin”

and emphasizes that

“Russia’s decline has given Turkey, after a decade of deference to Moscow, the freedom to pursue its own interests. Ukraine is the beneficiary.”

Amid escalating regional conflicts, Iran has attacked neighboring countries using Shahed-136 drones-the same ones Russia uses in its war against Ukraine. In response to these threats, Zelensky deployed air defense teams to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, highlighting the deepening military cooperation between Ukraine and the Gulf states.

As the regional dynamics shift, the growing partnership between Turkey and Ukraine could have significant consequences for the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East and Central Asia. Turkey’s move away from balancing Russia and NATO signals the potential for new alliances that may reshape security and stability in the region. Furthermore, the strengthening of military ties between Ukraine and the Gulf states reflects an expansion of strategic partnerships in response to threats from Iran and Russia.

As Turkey shifts its stance in the ongoing conflict, its role as a mediator has become increasingly significant. The recent developments highlight Ankara's involvement in facilitating discussions between Ukraine and Russia, positioning it as a crucial player in the quest for peace. For more insights on Turkey's emerging diplomatic efforts, see how it is stepping into ceasefire negotiations amidst the evolving geopolitical landscape.